The Northern Manitoba riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski is projected to be won by the NDP for the fourth straight federal election this October, but statistical modelling website 338canada.com says the party will capture a lower percentage of votes than it has in the previous two elections.
338canada.com predicted Aug. 11 that NDP candidate and current MP Niki Ashton will take about 40 per cent of the votes in the riding, compared to about 32 per cent for Liberal candidate Judy Klassen, with 18.5 per cent going to the Conservative party, 7.3 per cent to the Green party and 1.2 per cent to the people’s party of Canada.
Ashton has an 88 per cent chance of winning the election compared to 12 per cent for Klassen.
Ashton took about 45 per cent of the votes in 2015 and more than 51 per cent in 2011. Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand took about 42 per cent of the votes in 2015, up from only about 20 per cent for the Liberal candidate in 2011.
Klassen was elected as Keewatinook MLA in Manitoba’s 2016 provincial election, defeating former NDP MLA Eric Robinson. She announced in April that she would be seeking the federal nomination.
The Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding is 75 per cent Indigenous and many of its First Nations are accessible only by air or by winter roads. The median income of $16,606 is the lowest in Canada, and the median age of 26.3 is second-lowest. It has a child poverty rate of 64.2 per cent, the worst of any of Canada’s 338 federal ridings.