Polls show PCs with lead as election campaign enters its final week

The Progressive Conservative party appears poised to capture a second mandate in the provincial election Sept. 10, based on the results of two recent opinion polls.

An online survey of 586 Manitoba adults conducted by Research Co. Aug. 27-29 found that 46 per cent of decided voters were planning to cast ballots for the PCs, followed by 30 per cent for the NDP, 14 per cent for the Liberals and eight per cent for the Greens.

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Male voters (51 per cent), people aged 55 and over (54 per cent) and Manitobans outside of Winnipeg (58 per cent) are the PCs biggest fans.

Forty per cent of the poll’s respondents approved of PC leader Brian Pallister’s performance as premier from 2016 to 2019, while 47 per cent disapproved. The approval rating for NDP leader Wab Kinew was 30 per cent. Liberal leader Dougald Lamont had a 25 per cent approval rating, while 22 per cent of respondents approved of Green leader James Beddome. About a third of those who responded said Pallister would make the best premier, compared to 17 pert cent for Kinew, 10 per cent for Lamont and four per cent for Beddome. Thirty-four per cent said they were undecided about who would be the best premier.

Research Co.’s survey found that 35 per cent of respondents thought Pallister is best-equipped to look after the economy and jobs, 32 per cent think he is the best leader to handle crime and public safety and 30 per cent think he is the best to look after education. Kinew is viewed as the best leader in the area of housing, homelessness and poverty.

“Seven in 10 decided voters (72 per cent) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” said Research Co. president Mario Canseco. “This includes 83 per cent of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76 per cent of those who plan to vote NDP.”

A Probe Research poll commissioned by CTW News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press found that 40 per cent of decided voters intend to vote for the PCs, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP, 18 per cent for the Liberals and 10 per cent for the Green party. Twelve per cent of voters are undivided.

The PCs and NDP are statistically tied in northern Winnipeg, while the PCs and Liberals are tied in southeast Winnipeg. The NDP has the support of 42 per cent of people in Winnipeg‘s core, followed by the Greens with 23 per cent.

The Probe poll, based on an online survey of about 1,200 Manitobans between Aug. 13 and Aug. 24, has a margin of error of about plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Its results also indicate that only about a quarter of lapsed NDP voters – those who didn’t vote for the party in 2016 after having done so in one of the four previous elections – planned to cast their ballots for the NDP Sept. 10. Thirty-five per cent of such voters said they were planning to vote for the PCs.

Men, people aged 55 or older and those with a high school education or less are among the PCs biggest supporters, the Probe poll found, along with those who live outside of Winnipeg. Among Indigenous voters, the NDP leads with 29 per cent support, compared to 23 per cent for the PCs, 22 per cent for the Liberals and 13 per cent for the Greens.

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