Thompson inched into a new era Oct. 1 as Birchtree Mine stopped production of nickel ore and began the process of transitioning into care and maintenance status, a position it was previously in from 1978 until it reopened in 1989.
The move affects an estimated 150 jobs within the mine and up to 50 in processing, service and support roles, Vale Manitoba Operations said in May, when the decision to move to care and maintenance was made because it is unprofitable to continue mining at current nickel prices.
At any time, this would have been bad news for Thompson’s economy. While some affected employees may opt for early retirement and stick around and others may find new jobs locally, some will be moving out of town and taking the money that they spent on accommodations and goods and services elsewhere. That will have a trickle-down effect that even people who aren’t employed in anything mining-related will feel.
This time around, however, the decision to cease active mining at Birchtree and the accompanying job losses is only the first of back-to-back body blows that will be coming Thompson’s way. By this time next year, the smelter and refinery will no longer be a part of Vale’s local operations, and the closure of those two facilities could affect nearly three times as many jobs as Birchtree’s indefinite shutdown. Undoubtedly, there are fewer blessings for Thompson residents to count next Monday when Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving.
It would be wonderful if there were a magic bullet that could slay the economic challenges Thompson faces now and in the near future, and replace the jobs that are being or will be eliminated in one fell swoop. But the unfortunate reality is that the shrinking of the industrial and manufacturing sector is a long-term trend in developed countries like Canada and that the jobs that are cropping up to replace the unionized positions that have been lost in that process, pay less, have poorer benefits and themselves are subject to pressures from sectors that didn’t exist the last time Birchtree was on care and maintenance, like online shopping, which don’t contribute anything to the local economy and actually siphon off money that would otherwise be circulating amongst businesses that employ local people, pay local taxes and help local organizations raise money for hockey teams and scouting trips.
Does this mean we should all just give up? It certainly is possible that, somewhere down the line, Thompson could join the countless other one-industry towns in Canada and elsewhere that have been established, boomed and then gone bust to become mere shells of their former selves or even literal ghost towns filled with valueless property. On the other hand, there are also examples of cities that have survived the death or reduction of the industries that were once their only reasons to be and gone on to thrive with new economies based on new industries. But Thompson can’t expect to hit a home run and suddenly have a burgeoning tourism industry, for example, spring up to replace the mining jobs it has lost. Developing a new industry takes time and Thompson will need to develop several, each of which can help replace a small chunk of what the city is set to lose in mining-related employment and business.
Whether government initiatives such as the provincial Look North and the local Thompson 2020 will actually bear economic fruit remains to be seen. But there is little doubt that Thompson has a tougher road ahead than it has seen in the last decade-plus. To those who are up to the challenge, there could be some new opportunities presenting themselves. But by the time nickel prices return to levels that make extracting ore from Birchtree Mine a profitable enterprise again, assuming they do, there is little doubt that the economy of the city whose destiny it is linked to will have undergone some significant and at least partly unpleasant transformations.
